The Innovator Theory
The innovator theory relates to the spread of innovation and was put forward in 1962 by Stanford University Professor Everett M. Rogers in his book "Diffusion of Innovations" (released under a different title in Japan). Rogers classifies consumer attitudes towards purchasing products into five categories according to how quick consumers are to purchase new products; 1. innovators (2.5%), 2. opinion leaders or early adapters (13.5%), 3. early majority (34%), 4. late majority (34%), and 5. laggards or late adapters (16%).
The percentages occupied by these five types are shown by the bell-shaped curve in the graph below. Rogers compared this curve to the S-shaped curve formed by cumulative frequency distribution of product diffusion and, based on the fact that the 16% line that marks the cut-off point between innovators and opinion leaders and other consumers roughly coincides with the point where the S-curve starts to increase dramatically, discovered that the key to product diffusion is diffusion amongst opinion leaders. Thus Rogers put forward the 16% diffusion rate theory.
Opinion Leaders: Holding the Key to Product Diffusion
According to Rogers' innovator theory, in general, diffusion amongst opinion leaders holds the key to product diffusion as a whole.
Although it is innovators who purchase products at the earliest stages soon after their release, they tend to focus on products' novelty value rather than their essential benefits that might appeal to the majority of consumers. On the other hand, opinion leaders, who are next off the mark after innovators, tend to focus not on mere novelty value but on newly available benefits that differ from products in the past. The sooner a product is adopted, the more its actual uses differ from the uses and usage scenarios that the developers originally had in mind. Consequently, you could say that it is the role of opinion leaders to actually come up with uses for products. Effectively, it is not until opinion leaders come up with actual ways of using a product that it starts to find its place in the market.
In addition to this, opinion leaders are generally thought to have a great deal of influence over other consumers. When word-of-mouth networks are formed based around opinion leaders, it really paves the way for product diffusion. That is why opinion leaders are said to hold the key to product diffusion. Although innovators and opinion leaders combined account for no more than the 16% of the overall market, whether or not a company can get opinion leaders on board at the early stages of the market determines whether or not product diffusion will spread to the early and late majorities.
The notion that opinion leaders hold the key to product diffusion is not limited exclusively to efforts to market consumer goods to ordinary consumers. In the world of marketing producer goods to companies too, you could say winning over the top companies within the relevant target market is essential in order to gain control of a share of the market. If anything, you could say that it is actually more important for companies to get opinion leaders on board in the producer goods industry, in which new technology is directly linked to target companies' product development, in order to establish their innovations within the market. Compared to companies dealing in consumer goods, companies providing corporate products and services are often found to be lacking when it comes to marketing initiatives. In addition to gaining control of opinion leaders, companies such as this operating B2B business models also need to successfully plan and implement techniques such as IMC (Integrated Marketing Communication) in order to be more effective.
Chasm Theory
One man who has questioned the commonly accepted innovation diffusion theory that states that opinion leaders hold the key to product diffusion is American marketing consultant Geoffrey Moore. In his book "Chasm" (published by Shoeisha), Moore tackles the subject of the high-tech industry, claiming that there exists a hidden chasm impeding product diffusion to a larger market beneath the frequency distribution curve outlined in the innovator theory.
Moore demonstrates that there is a so-called chasm that cannot easily be bridged between the initial market, consisting of innovators and early adapters (opinion leaders) and the mainstream market, consisting of the early and late majorities. According to Moore, unless companies can get over this chasm stemming from the differences between customer segments, their products are destined to remain stuck in the small-scale initial market and will fall by the wayside sooner or later rather than breaking into the mainstream.
The reason for the chasm is that, whereas early adapters are looking to stay ahead of the competition with products that nobody else is using, consumers in the early majority want to keep up with the competition with reliable products that lots of other people are using. As early majority consumers make purchasing decisions based on the fact that other people are using a certain product, if the product is only being used by a small number of early adapters, this will make them reluctant to purchase it. Essentially, there is no motivation for early majority consumers to buy such a product. Therefore, rather than thinking exclusively in terms of diffusion amongst early adapters (opinion leaders), it is vital to take appropriate steps to target the early majority (creating examples) from the very beginning in order to bridge the chasm and gain access to the mainstream market on the other side.
As demonstrated by the fact that Moore's book was regarded as the bible of the US high-tech industry for ten years, this theory is something that companies need to be particularly aware of in the ever-advancing world of technology. Rather than contradicting Rogers' innovator theory, you could say that Moore's chasm theory reemphasizes the importance of the fundamentals of marketing, including market segmentation, targeting and positioning, all of which are central to Rogers' theory. (Continued)
